Harvest is away for 2024 with headers finally kicking into gear, with some surprising yields as growers tackle lentils, canola and field peas.
After Saturday’s hot northerlies and today’s hot forecast expect things to get hectic from now on. Take extra care on the roads, slow down, and watch for clouds of dust, semi-trailers and large agricultural equipment.
I also caught up with Paul Lange from Centre State Exports this week and he has provided their latest forecast price-wise as we move into harvest.
Send your harvest photos to me at parks5461@gmail.com or 0407 619 070.
A unique season is about to unfold
As harvest is kicking off in many regions in SA, the consensus is ‘let’s just get it over and done with’.
For most of us in the grain game, harvest (although busy and often stressful) is a good time of year – you spend your time, money and effort all year to finally reap the rewards.
Probably not so much for many this year. For those of us that have been doing this for a while, a dry season is nothing new, seen it all before but it seems this drought in South Australia is not like any we have seen in recent times.
Unfortunately, we find ourselves in the highly unusual circumstance where we in SA are having one of the driest years on record, yet both our western and eastern neighbours are having average to above average seasons.
Conditions here have been typical yet extreme even for a normal drought. Extremely dry and a late start, well below average winter rain, frost, and no spring rain of any real value.
Typically, in these extreme conditions the east coast is suffering with equal if not worse conditions. This is not the case this year.
As a result, we are not seeing the normal influences on the market locally.
In our most recent dry seasons, the lack of grain on the east coast has meant domestic demand has drawn our grain back into east coast markets with healthy premiums that well exceed what export markets are willing to pay.
Currently the SA market for wheat and barley are in ‘no man’s land’. We have the most expensive grain in the country sitting at a significant premium over the export parity price.
Our domestic demand is relatively small and will be easily satisfied by local production and if not will be covered by grain coming out of the east coast.
With conditions so bad locally, farmers are generally not willing to sell until they have the harvest in the bin. With no grain being sold there has been minimal pressure on prices but this could potentially change as harvest progresses.
Many exporters have shipping commitments, but it comes down to the cheapest option, cancelling shipping commitments and wear the costs, or buy expensive grain and sell it at a significant loss.
In the current market the cheaper option is to cancel the shipping. The likelihood of international buyers wanting SA grain at a premium over WA or east coast grain is unlikely.
For crops like beans and lentils it is a little different as we are major suppliers but ultimately there will be a limit as to what our international customers are willing to pay.
We are in the rare situation of having a limited supply of grain and poor prices with it. Fortunately, many growers have had a run of good if not exceptionally good seasons and will get through this season okay but that does not make it any easier.
It is important that as a farming community we look out for one another and offer those that are struggling the support they may not ask for but most likely need.
In my opinion 2024 is a season to put behind us and move forward to a better and brighter 2025. Hopefully harvest is as quick and as painless as possible, and we can look forward to getting the chance to go to the cricket this year.
– Paul Lange, Centre State Exports Grain Analyst.
